Carville Calls It: Is Trump’s Collapse Already Underway?

Our latest polling details Trump's position across over a dozen important youth sub-groups.

The Backdrop

You have to love James Carville; since he's not a pollster, he can feel free to make any prediction he likes. And he usually does. His latest? That Trump's public support is collapsing and that in "30 days to six weeks," we'll see an outright free fall. Is he right?

One thing I know for certain: the backlash will be swiftest and harshest among those who know him least but expect the most—young voters. YouGov tracking shows Trump falling from 53% to 39% among young voters—a 14-point drop. Similarly, SocialSphere's latest Gen Z tracker confirms this trend, showing a seven-point decline (50% to 43%) in Trump's favorability among 18-29-year-olds over just the past month.

Trump benefited from a fresh start with many younger voters who were either too young or too disengaged to form strong opinions during his first term. But those same voters are now living under his policies, and their expectations are quickly colliding with reality. If they start to view him as just another politician who over-promised and under-delivered, the break will be decisive.

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My Takeaways ✨✨✨

#1: Economic Confidence in Trump Crashes

Trump's approval ratings on economic, jobs, and cost-of-living-related issues have plummeted among young voters since his inauguration: