"You exist in the context" -- so let's understand it and use it to boost youth turnout in 100 days
Exclusive deep dive into SocialSphere's latest research and segmentation of the youth electorate
The Backdrop
As I've been doing for much of the last few decades, when the spring semester at Harvard concludes, I spend much of the summer on the road talking with groups of young people. This year, my travels included battleground states like Michigan, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Arizona — but other states, including Ohio and California. Additionally, I participated in a dozen or more virtual sessions with Gen Zers and young millennials from across every region of the country.
While there are countless insights and takeaways from this qualitative research — four overarching findings that I reported to colleagues at FutureVoice (a new 501(C)(3) public awareness campaign dedicated to increasing turnout and civic engagement among young people) — today help explain the mood of the youth vote Vice President Harris inherited and the challenges and opportunities confronting her and all others seeking ways to maximize youth vote turnout.
Frustration and Disenchantment: City after city emerged with a common sentiment of frustration and disenchantment with the current state of affairs. Many young people described the state of the nation as "pathetic" and "broken," feeling misunderstood by older generations. Concerns about financial burdens, such as high costs of living, student debt, and housing affordability, were recurrent themes, revealing deep anxieties about economic stability and healthcare access.
Fundamental Rights and Freedoms at Risk: Rights and freedoms were significant concerns. Young people from both progressive and conservative backgrounds voiced worries about threats to freedom of speech, education access, and LGBTQ+ and reproductive rights. There was a general distrust in the effectiveness of government and the two-party system, with interest in third-party candidates.
Widespread Skepticism About Change: Voting was often discussed as a tool for promoting social justice and inclusivity. However, many participants felt disenfranchised and skeptical about the real impact of their votes, underscoring a need for better voter education.
Strong Desire for Engagement: Despite these challenges, young people showed a strong willingness to engage in political discourse and advocate for change. They desired increased media and political literacy and valued the opportunity to participate in meaningful political conversations.
Many young people were skeptical that an election between Biden and Trump would lead to real progress, but they still recognized the high stakes. Most young adults under 30 reported that “a lot” or “everything” was at stake in this election, with nearly three-quarters saying the same about the nation.
To combat skepticism and maximize youth participation in the election, we followed up the qualitative research with an extensive national survey of young Americans. We developed a segmentation model offering actionable insights into five unique subgroups of young Americans and how their attitudes about government and politics impact their voting likelihood.
My Three Takeaways
#1: Boosting Youth Turnout Based on Attitudes (5 Segments of Young Voters in 2024)
In the simplest form, there are three groups of young people. Those who:
Always vote — they believe it is their civic duty and are surrounded by others who feel similarly;
Are on the fence — this group is divided into two segments of similar size — one needs to be convinced voting can make a tangible difference in the country, and the other needs more information about the process, candidates, and issues;
Are Unlikely to vote in this election, but hopefully can be won back to the polls over time.
Those Who Always Vote
The Civic Youth segment (14% of young Americans) comprises voters in their mid-to-late 20s. They are white, well-educated, and hold a high percentage of college degrees. They are predominantly employed full-time and lean Democratic, showing a high level of political engagement and consistent voter history. This group is highly registered to vote, aligning their political beliefs closely with progressive values. They view voting as a crucial civic duty and believe they can impact the country's future.
Fence-Sitters
Show Me voters (23%) have a balanced gender distribution with a notable presence of Hispanics. Many in this segment do not have a college background and show average political engagement and registration rates. They include many independents and display moderate to progressive views, making them open to persuasion. They are engaged and opinionated on political matters but don't view voting as a civic duty. This segment is considerably less likely to believe political engagement leads to meaningful change and more likely to think older voters have more power than younger ones. They are also more likely than others to vote when encouraged by a trusted friend.
Typically younger, Teach Me voters (25%) include more students and individuals without college degrees. Their political engagement is moderate, and they show an even mix of political affiliations, with a noticeable portion being independent. They are searching for more information about the electoral process and candidates, indicating a potential openness to voting if adequately informed.
Unlikely Voters
The Cynical Ones segment (15%) tends to include individuals in their late 20s. They often live in rural or small-town settings, with lower rates of full-time employment and higher rates of unemployment or homemaking. They are less likely to be politically engaged or registered to vote. Their skepticism toward politics and its impact is evident.
The Unmoved segment (24%) comprises more Black Americans, many of whom do not hold college degrees. They show an average employment rate and a high level of non-registration for voting. This group is characterized by their indifference toward the electoral process and skepticism about the potential impact of their votes, often citing a general disinterest in politics as a reason for potentially not voting in November.
#2: Political and Policy Profile of the 5 Segments
When we look at the most pressing issues facing the country, we find that:
Civic Youth prioritize education quality, electoral integrity, and healthcare, and they show significant concern for inflation as part of their broader focus on economic stability and progressive issues.
The Show Me segment prioritizes environmental issues, gun violence reduction, healthcare, and education.
Teach Me voters are keenly focused on healthcare, individual rights, affordable housing, and the quality of education. Their concern for inflation is moderate, aligning with their significant interest in addressing mental health and systemic racism.
The Cynical Ones show a particular interest in gun violence, healthcare, and family poverty. Their concern for inflation is more pronounced than some other issues.
The Unmoved segment exhibits a general disinterest in most issues, with inflation no exception. They show a relatively higher concern for job creation, crime-fighting, and making college more affordable, but overall, they place less importance on issues than other segments.
When it comes to voter registration, history, and ideology, we find:
Highly registered and politically engaged, Civic Youth predominantly lean Democratic and are progressive, showing a solid voting history.
Show Me is moderately engaged, with average registration and voting rates. This segment includes many independents with moderate to progressive views.
Teach Me voters display moderate political engagement and an even mix of political affiliations, with a noticeable portion of independents.
The least politically engaged and with lower registration rates, the Cynical Ones are less progressive in their politics, skewing moderate to conservative.
The Unmoved have mixed voting and registration records, are less engaged, and hold diverse political views. Many are undecided about which candidate or party they prefer in November.
#3: Demographic Profile of the 5 Segments
Profiling each segment along primary demographic lines we find:
Civic Youth tends to be older, primarily white, and well-educated, with a significant number holding college degrees. They are predominantly employed full-time and fall mainly into the middle to upper-middle-class categories.
Show Me is characterized by a balanced gender distribution and a notable presence of Hispanics. This group includes many without a college background. Employment levels are average.
Typically younger, Teach Me includes more students and young people without college degrees.
The Cynical Ones tend to be in their late 20s. This group is marked by people without a college education and a notable rate of unemployment or homemaking.
The Unmoved segment is characterized by a higher presence of individuals in their early to mid-20s and includes a notable number of Black individuals. Many in this group do not hold college degrees and have an average employment rate similar to that of national figures for young adults.
Additionally:
Civic Youth predominantly reside in suburban areas, have a high full-time employment rate, and are married. A notable percentage identify as atheists.
The Show Me segment features a significant urban presence and a balanced employment profile. The majority are single, and this group has a high proportion of Catholics.
Teach Me voters are more evenly distributed across geography and have a high self-employment rate. They predominantly identify as single and show a diverse religious profile, including higher proportions identifying as spiritual but not religious.
The Cynical Ones are likelier to live in rural and small-town settings.
The Unmoved has a notable presence in suburban and urban areas, with a substantial portion single and employed part-time. They are the most likely to have no religious preference.
The Bottom Line
While plenty of attention was paid to Democrats' concerns about President Biden's stamina and re-election chances in the weeks following the debate, not nearly enough was paid to the underlying political landscape, or as Vice President Harris's mom would remind her, "context."
Individuals and groups have done much good work to remove barriers, register, and teach young people how to vote. The goal of this research and FuturveVoice's mission is to build upon and extend this great work and help young people understand why they should vote.
I hope this context and these insights help with that effort. Let me know your thoughts — and stay tuned for more updates on this and other research in the coming weeks.
Use it ?
Use what else or who else ?
Use it to cling to the Power ?
Use it ?
The youth are not there to be used by All and Sundry !